
by: Bill Dupray posted: 2009-10-14 09:35:00
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Obama's election was an aberration. Nobody had ever motivated blacks to vote in such high numbers. The necessary corollary to that is that when he is not on the ticket, the Democrats' numbers will be worse. So Democrats running in districts with higher than average numbers of black voters are watching Virginia and New Jersey for evidence that their margins of victory in 2010 might stay home on the couch.
From The Hill.
Democrats are bracing for a precipitous drop in black voter turnout next month and beyond.Alarms are being rung about just how many African-Americans will vote without President Barack Obama on the ballot, and the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races in three weeks will provide the first major test since the 2008 election.
A recent Washington Post survey estimated the black turnout in Virginia’s governor’s race at 12 percent, which would be about a 40 percent drop from last year’s general election. Other polling has shown both its and New Jersey’s black population unmoved about the off-year election.
Even Democrats see the coming train-wreck.
Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, has been among the most outspoken. He said the high number of Democrats with districts that are significantly black means such a turnout shift could be disastrous for Democrats.“If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House,” Jensen said.
House Democrats with black populations in their districts in the 25% or higher range are watching nervously. Because what few elections have taken place since November have not been pretty.
The limited evidence so far is a little frightening for Democrats. Apart from the voter models in Virginia’s governor’s race, Louisiana Democrats lost two December House races in significantly black districts — including one in majority-black New Orleans. And Georgia Democrats saw Senate nominee Jim Martin lose to Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) by 15 percentage points in a December runoff, after losing by just three points the month before.All three losses were attributed, in significant part, to drops in black turnout.
The sad part of this is that when it is over, the discussion will be all about the Democrats' favorite issue: race. The Republicans oppose Obama because he is a Socialist who is destroying our economy and our freedom. He richly deserves to lose all of Congress next year and then get tossed out himself in 2012. But will the Democrats acknowledge that their policies were the problem? Nah, they will blame their losses on Fox News and racist Republicans.
Trackback url: http://patriotroom.com/article/democrat-pollster-low-black-turnout-in-2010-may-cost-democrats-the-house/trackback
Back in November, the House passed its health care bill by a narrow 220 to 215 margin, with 39 Democrats voting against it. Since then, the one Republican who voted for it — Joseph Cao — has indicated that he would not support the bill a second time around given the weaker language on abortion in the Senate version. In addition, Florida Rep. Robert Wexler already retired prematurely. Factor in Murtha’s death today, and Pelosi is down to 217 votes — one short of passage. To pass the bill at some point in the next few months, she’ll need to flip a Democrat who is already on record voting against the bill.
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Don't think that Republicans can't be sucked in when an anti-Wall Street lynch mob gets its blood up. Recall that Sarbanes-Oxley, the devastating antigrowth response in 2002 to the Enron and Worldcom scandals, was passed with virtually unanimous support by Republicans in Congress, and signed by a Republican president. Recall that last year 85 House Republicans voted for a 90% tax on bonuses for any employee of any bank that took more than $5 billion in TARP money. Investors got some good news last Friday. Stocks resisted following through on Thursday's sharp plunge after (Congress) reached an impasse on bank re-regulation. That's a nice down payment on what investors need a lot more of now: proof that the GOP won't join Democrats in a populist rush to seek revenge against Wall Street.
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Just two years after Mr. Obama helped his party pull in record Wall Street contributions — $89 million from the securities and investment business, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics — some of his biggest supporters, like Mr. Dimon, have become the industry’s chief lobbyists against his regulatory agenda. Republicans are rushing to capitalize on what they call Wall Street’s “buyer’s remorse” with the Democrats. And industry executives and lobbyists are warning Democrats that if Mr. Obama keeps attacking Wall Street “fat cats,” they may fight back by withholding their cash.
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The Dow, down almost 104 points, had its 10th triple-digit move in 16 trading days. Shares of big banks pulled the market lower, extending a slump that has led to four straight weekly losses.I can't, for the life of me, understand why bank stocks would be dropping. Inexplicable.
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Contrary to President Obama's promises, voters say special interests have more influence on the political process now than they did a year ago, according to a new poll. The poll, paid for by groups looking to curb the Supreme Court's recent campaign finance ruling, found that majorities of both Republicans and Democrats say special interests have increased their influence since the president took office, and they say Mr. Obama has not done enough to fight back.
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If the starting point for this meeting is the job-killing bills the American people have already soundly rejected, Republicans would rightly be reluctant to participate,” the pair explained in a letter to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. They also said President Barack Obama should remove reconciliation from the table. Using budget reconciliation rules to move healthcare reform in the Senate would mean Democrats would only need 51 votes on procedural measures instead of 60... On Sunday afternoon however, Obama refused to say he would start from scratch.
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An announcement from his office said Murtha died at 1:18 p.m. at the Virginia Hospital Center, where he had been admitted last week after having his gallbladder removed at Bethesda Naval Hospital.
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The scientist at the centre of the “climategate” email scandal has revealed that he was so traumatised by the global backlash against him that he contemplated suicide. Jones, 57, said he was unprepared for the scandal: “I am just a scientist. I have no training in PR or dealing with crises.”Actually, he's using the term "scientist" loosely there, given that real scientists don't do what he did. And while he may not have any training dealing with crises, he sure was good at generating one: it was called the global warming crisis.
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well, we have to waitr & see what happens in NJ, because that will also validate/invalidate the smear campaign Corzine has run.