
by: Bill Dupray posted: 2009-10-13 11:37:00
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Political handicappers are looking at the 2010 Senate contests and they see lots of blue seats turning purple and red before their eyes.
Stuart Rothenberg yesterday moved Harry Reid's seat from 'Narrow Advantage for Incumbent' to 'Toss-up.'
When you look at the Democrats in his 'Tossup' category, you wonder whether these are really toss-ups or whether Rothenberg is whispering 'it will all be okay' in their ears.
* IL Open (Burris, D)
* Dodd (D-CT)
* Reid (D-NV) *
In the Illinois race, we had a poll out today showing Republican Mark Kirk leading Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 7 points in his bid to fill Obama's seat. With Rod Blagojevich's going away in handcuffs after filling the seat with Roland Burris, one cannot help but think this seat leans more to the right than left.
In Connecticut, RCP has Rob Simmons beating Chris Dodd by 6 points, and Dodd has not led in any poll since March.
Reid is trailing both of his potential GOP rivals.
In one general election scenario, 49 percent of respondents picked Lowden and 39 percent chose Reid. In another, 48 percent picked Tarkanian to 43 percent for Reid. That poll, which surveyed 500 voters Tuesday through Thursday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
While those are the toss-ups, Rothenberg has at least one flat-out likely flip for the GOP in Delaware. Joe Biden's seat seems like the lowest hanging fruit for Republican picking. He is not alone. Chris Cillizza agrees agrees that Delaware is the most endangered seat for the Blue team.
When you look at the Democrat seats that 'Lean Incumbent,' they are not much better.
We are also moving two other Democratic-held Senate seats, Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) and Colorado (Michael Bennet) from Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party to Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party, based on their standings in polling and the improved quality of recent Republicans who have entered those contests.
Blanche Lincoln trails all 4 of her would-be Republican rivals and can't get over 50% herself in any of the contests.
Bennet has got trouble to his left and his right. Much to the chagrin of the Party, a popular Democratic former state lawmaker, Andrew Romanoff, has decided to challenge Bennet in the primary. The Democrats had better hope that Romanoff is really popular, because a poll last month showed Bennet losing to former Republican Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton by 9 points.
Then there is ol' Arlen Specter, who has to get by a real Democrat, Joe Sestak, before he gets to take on a real Republican, Pat Toomey. It seems that the Democrats are trying to out-Commie each other to win over the moonbat base. The problem is that, whichever one wins will leave Toomey with lots of good video for the general election.
But as time has gone on, the extent to which the two men have indeed attempted to outdo each other by taking more and more progressive stances has become fairly comical.
Cillizza thinks Specter and Sestak could be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The most recent Quinnipiac University poll painted a troubling picture for Sen. Arlen Specter (D). While he continued to lead Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by double digits, Specter had dropped well below the 50 percent mark he enjoyed in past polls. And, in a general election matchup Specter was running even with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R). Toomey continues to impress with his fundraising -- collecting more than $1.5 million from July 1 to Sept. 30. Democrats scoff at Toomey's potential competitiveness but they are headed toward a primary that could well leave their eventual nominee badly battered and financially bereft.
That is a total of 7 endangered Democrats. How it is that they aren't in a wild-eyed panic over these numbers is beyond me. It makes you wonder if, when it comes time to vote, all of Obama's best laid plans will go right down the crapper when Democrats realize how vulnerable they really are.
Trackback url: http://patriotroom.com/article/democrats-2010-senate-prospects-dimming/trackback
The share of the blame comes as cracks are beginning to show in Emanuel’s once-impregnable political armor... on Capitol Hill he’s under fire for poor execution of the president’s healthcare agenda in the Senate... Senate Democrats grilled White House advisers last week during a special Senate Democratic retreat, expressing frustration over the lack of a clear plan. While Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) ripped chief political strategist David Axelrod, Senate Democrats say Emanuel, who was more closely involved in managing negotiations in Congress, also deserves scrutiny.
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Michelle Obama defended her husband against some of his most vocal critics, saying President Obama did a "phenomenal" job this year and that change is a long-term process. The first lady talks about her nationwide campaign called "Let's Move." "I think my husband has done a phenomenal job staying on course, looking his critics in the eye, coming up with clear solutions against staying the course," Michelle Obama told Robin Roberts in an exclusive morning television interview on "Good Morning America." "That's what leadership is. But people have the right to criticize the President of the United States."Let me finish that last thought for you, Michelle. I see you rubbing your hands together and thinking, "Yes, for now people have the right to criticize him, but we're working on changing that."
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In his letter, being sent out to Arpaio supporters today as part of a 100,000-person national direct mail drop, the sheriff calls Hayworth's decision to challenge McCain "courageous." And he pledges to help Hayworth "every step of the way." "Senator McCain has served this country admirably but it's time to replace his moderate or even liberal positions on taxes, the border, social causes and big bank bailouts with a consistent conservative like J.D.," Arpaio continues. "After years of running over Republican principles his entire career no election year conversion to our way of thinking will save his campaign from voters that want conservatives to be a part of the solution rather than part of the problem," he says.
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McCain now finds himself jammed, moving starkly — and often awkwardly — to the right, apparently in an effort to gain favor among the same voters whom Mr. Hayworth, a consistent voice for the far right, could pull toward him like taffy come summer. McCain now sharply criticizes the bailout bill he voted for, pivoted from his earlier position that the Guantánamo Bay detention facility should be closed, offered only a muted response to the Supreme Court’s decision undoing campaign finance laws and backed down from statements that gays in the military would be O.K. by him... “John is undergoing a campaign conversion,” Mr. Hayworth said. Hayworth’s radio-personality bluster and big emotions.. may now have a part in the greater populist narrative that threatens many of the nation’s more centrist Republicans.
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Iran said Tuesday that it had begun producing higher-grade enriched uranium, marking a new and potentially dangerous turn in Tehran's confrontation with the West over its nuclear ambitions... U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis C. Blair told the House intelligence committee last week that "Iran has the scientific, the technical, the industrial capacity to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon in the next few years and eventually to produce a nuclear weapon. The central issue is a political decision by Iran to do so."
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I wouldn't want my fingerprints on anything this administration or congress proposes. Reid told reporters the bill would be introduced on Tuesday, and that it would include an extension of the tax breaks... Reid did not say how expensive the jobs bill would be. The Senate had been considering a package of roughly $80 billion. The House passed a larger jobs bill before Christmas, but now plans to unveil a different bill independent of that package, which did not garner Republican support.
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Back in November, the House passed its health care bill by a narrow 220 to 215 margin, with 39 Democrats voting against it. Since then, the one Republican who voted for it — Joseph Cao — has indicated that he would not support the bill a second time around given the weaker language on abortion in the Senate version. In addition, Florida Rep. Robert Wexler already retired prematurely. Factor in Murtha’s death today, and Pelosi is down to 217 votes — one short of passage. To pass the bill at some point in the next few months, she’ll need to flip a Democrat who is already on record voting against the bill.
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Just two years after Mr. Obama helped his party pull in record Wall Street contributions — $89 million from the securities and investment business, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics — some of his biggest supporters, like Mr. Dimon, have become the industry’s chief lobbyists against his regulatory agenda. Republicans are rushing to capitalize on what they call Wall Street’s “buyer’s remorse” with the Democrats. And industry executives and lobbyists are warning Democrats that if Mr. Obama keeps attacking Wall Street “fat cats,” they may fight back by withholding their cash.
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The Dow, down almost 104 points, had its 10th triple-digit move in 16 trading days. Shares of big banks pulled the market lower, extending a slump that has led to four straight weekly losses.I can't, for the life of me, understand why bank stocks would be dropping. Inexplicable.
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