
by: Bill Dupray posted: 2009-10-08 19:00:00
Viewed 356 times. 1 Comments.
I was going to put this in the Newsstand, but there is so much good stuff in this Washington Post/ABC Poll and the accompanying article that it needs a full post. I'll give you the highlights but the Post story is worth your time.
First off, McDonnell leads by 53-44, a margin of 9, up 4 points from last month in the same poll. But that isn't really even the story. Deeds is tanking in pretty much every demographic and in places he should be doing well.
But let's not waste the Post's take on it with a paraphrase.
Republican Robert F. McDonnell has taken a commanding lead over R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor of Virginia . . ..With a little more than three weeks before Election Day, the poll shows McDonnell in a powerful position. By double-digit margins voters believe he would better handle virtually every major issue facing Virginians, including transportation, taxes, education, the state budget and the economy. . ..
Turns out the big blue Northern Virginia vote has jumped ship on Deeds.
Compared with other regions, Northern Virginia's inner suburbs has the highest percentage of voters who are either undecided or open to shifting their support between now and Nov. 3. Overall, Northern Virginia voters break 51 percent for Deeds to 46 percent [me - that 5 point lead is down from 17 last month] for McDonnell, well below the 60 percent that Democrats view as necessary to win statewide races.
And how about those independents? Some pretty scary numbers for the Dems here.
McDonnell's supporters are also more enthusiastic than Deeds's and more voters say they believe he has advanced new ideas for the state. Deeds now trails among independent voters by a striking 21 percentage point margin -- 59 to 38 percent.
McDonnell is not the only Republican feeling the love.
Republicans are also well positioned to sweep the other two statewide races, with Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli each holding identical 49 to 40 percent leads over Democrats Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
As the Post notes, Deeds damaged himself when he bungled a reporter's question on taxes, essentially reversing his no-taxes pledge and saying he was open to them. We noted the damage at the time and McDonnell capitalized on the gaffe with an ad.
Deeds has also run a nasty campaign that has turned people off. McDonnell responded with what has to be the best ad of the cycle; a montage of press clippings with AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap playing as the soundtrack. We posted it, but it has been pulled from YouTube. Looks like McDonnell doesn't need it any more. The point has been made.
Tags: Washington Post, Virginia,
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If every House member votes and all Republicans reject the bill as expected, Pelosi can only afford 37 Democratic defections. That breakdown of the votes would lead to a 216-215 tally. Of the 34 no votes/leaning no votes, eight of them backed the House-backed bill in November. Meanwhile, nine Democrats who voted no last fall are publicly on the fence.So she needs to convince 6 people who voted no in the fall to vote yes now, i.e., she needs to convince 6 people who got it right last time to end their careers. Good luck with that.
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He's screwed.