Publius' Newsstand

• Will House recon bill surive intact in Senate? ...

  Very clear. Toast: FTA: Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said Thursday that it is unlikely the Senate will be able to pass a health care reconciliation bill unchanged from what the House passes. Conrad said the Senate Parliamentarian has declined to make rulings on several issues in the bill that Republicans are likely to challenge under the ?Byrd rule.? That rule states that, among other things, every provision of a budget reconciliation bill must have a budget impact and cannot be ?extraneous.? ?Although we?ve spent many, many hours with the Parliamentarian, some things he has not yet rendered a conclusion? on, Conrad said. ?He wants to hear from both sides before he does.? Conrad continued: ?Do I expect there will be some additional Byrd rule challenges that will be upheld? Yeah. I do.?

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• Another flip from Yes to No: Rep. Michael Arcur...

  Rep. Mike Arcuri (D., N.Y.), a sophomore who had a tough go of it in 2008, will vote nay on Obamacare, both on the House floor and in the Rules Committee. The Rules vote is symbolic, since Democrats outnumber Republicans there two-to-one. But the floor vote could go either way. It is obviously a blow to Pelosi's chances of hitting 216.

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• Update on CBO: Corrupt Dem leaders touting unof...

  Thanks to Avery for the heads-up on today's atrocity rolling off Capitol Hill.

  Ranking Republican Paul Ryan responds to an NRO query about the news this morning: ?The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet House Democrats are touting to the press ? and spinning for partisan gain ? numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm.

  Boy, a final official number that came in over a trillion bucks would really bite them in the a**.

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• McCain's lead over Hayworth shrinks to 7

  Johnny Mac is also under the all-important 50% support level.

  The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.

  By my math, McCain's lead shrunk from 21 to 7 in two months. Hmmm.

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• CBO: Obamacare costs $940 billion

  And in the world of Washington speak, somehow spending that much cash actually lowers the deficit by $130 billion. I have a better idea. How about we just not spend $940 billion in the first place? After all, if you are trying to trim your budget, you don't go buying a Lamborghini on a credit card. One more thing. Isn't it funny how CBO can score a bill without an actual bill. Hmmm . . .

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• USA Today editors: The Slaughter Rule is a 'gim...

  Keep in mind USA Today wholeheartedly supports this health care takeover, but even they are disturbed by "deeming" a bill passed without a vote in the House.

  [House] leaders are mulling a rule that would allow the chamber to "deem" the Senate's version of health legislation as passed, without actually having to vote on it. Imagine how useful this trick would be in daily life. You could make unpopular decisions without actually appearing to make them. That excruciating Thanksgiving dinner at your brother-in-law's? You "deemed" that you attended. . . . It's understandable that some House Democrats wouldn't want to cast a direct vote on the Senate bill . . . before moving to change it. But a procedure this transparently gimmicky just adds to the cynicism surrounding the bill and opens it up to unnecessary court challenges.

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• Biden bombs at Correspondents' Dinner

  Biden is funnier when he isn't trying to be funny. This stuff is so lame, he should have gotten the hook. More, if you can stand them, at the link. - "I just got back from five days in the Middle East. It's great to be back to a place where a boom in housing construction is a good thing." - "Liz Cheney is here tonight. Liz has been on a tear. Now she's questioning if Tom Brady is a Patriot." Meh, said the crowd. "What the hell, it was worth a try." - On moving to Washington: "I voted for public housing all my career -- never realized how good it actually is!"

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• Shocker: Boxer now trails Campbell in CA Senate...

  Sure, it's within the margin of error, but Campbell is leading. The pollster moves the race to "toss-up."

  In hypothetical match ups with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, Campbell leads Boxer, 44% to 43%, while Boxer leads Fiorina, 45% to 44%, and tops DeVore, 45% to 41%. Both findings are within the survey's margin of error.

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• GOP gears up for health bill lawsuits

  Mark Levin is one, but other right-wing legal eagles (they have two right wings) are gunning for this abomination as well. It's the Slaughter Rule and the individual mandate in the crosshairs.

  The looming Congressional showdown over health care reform has set Washington?s legal war rooms whirring in preparation for court battles over any health legislation that moves towards President Barack Obama?s desk. Republican lawyers say they?re conducting research and drafting arguments for lawsuits that could be filed within days or weeks, particularly if House leaders decide to go forward with a ?deem & pass? rule that would not permit a freestanding vote on the Senate-passed health care reform bill.

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• GOP: We can kill 40% of the bill in Senate reco...

  A nice, slow strangle in the Senate, if (a big if) it makes it out of the House.

  Democrats might like to think that health care reform is all but a done deal if it clears the House, but the Senate is where Republicans have been plotting for months to sentence it to a painful procedural death. Republican aides have been mining the Senate?s arcane parliamentary rules for an attack that aims at striking elements both broad and narrow from the bill, weakening the measure and ultimately defeating it. Their goal is to force changes that leave Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) without 51 votes to pass it, or at the very least, that drive it back to the House for a second vote that drags out the process and saps Democratic resolve.

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