PA's Abbas burning candle at both ends - about to get burned

by: Clyde Middleton   posted: 2009-08-22 17:16:00
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Abbas has several stakeholders in and around him: Israel, Hamas, Fatah, the moderate Arabs, the militant Arabs/Persians, and the United States. The challenge for the duplicitous Abbas is that the stakes of these several holders conflict, and he is summarily falling short on every count. He pleases and crosses every one of them as time goes on. The end result is coming into focus: Abbas isolated and expendable. He'll be the last to know and the one most harshly affected.

Let's start with Israel and Hamas. A deal to release Gilad Schalit was "close." History is replete with examples of the high value Israel places on its citizens - both dead and alive. They've swapped dozens and even hundreds of legitimate prisoners in return for the body of a single fallen soldier. There is no way to know Gilad's condition because, of course, quite without worldwide condemnation, Hamas has refused all requests for international agencies to visit him. Among the prisoners that Israel was set to release were Hamas legislators and officials. Knowing this would give legitimacy to Hamas' political stand, Abbas quashed the deal.

Further on Hamas, even with many of their political leaders in Israeli prisons, they are still too strong for Abbas to control. Hamas also has closer ties with Syria, Hezbullah, and Iran (the militant Arabs/Persians) than Abbas has. Since the Hamas home base is the Gaza Strip, which bifurcates Ammas' control over Palestinian-occupied Israeli territories, Hamas has to go. Taking a page from American politics and the recent Fatah conference (where the votes of international delegates were used to great success), Abbas is going to expand the voting base for the January 2010 election to include worldwide Palestinians. This will dwarf any voting bloc Hamas can amass. Abbas cannot risk a territorial-based voting after the terror campaign Hamas ran against Fatah before the last election resulting in Hamas having the leadership positions it presently holds. So Abbas is expanding the base in a brazen move to unseat Hamas in favor of Fatah.

Focusing on Israel, it was Obama's miscue in taking a stand against expanding the settlements. Obama naively thought that it was an open diplomatic issue and that stopping construction was similar to not building new "cities." The Three Diplomacy Stooges - Obama, Mitchell, and Hillary - all mishandled the issue. There are 600,000 Jews in Judea and Samara - do you stop telling them to have families? How would similarly sized Milwaukee or Seattle react if they were told to stop all construction? Further, of course, there were agreements with Washington. Abbas, knowing that Israel would never agree, ceased on it as a litmus test for any "peace discussions." How certain was he that Netanyahu would not agree? The Palestinian economy is fragile enough - and the overwhelming majority of construction workers on those settlements are Palestinians. If Bebe said "yes" then Abbas would have paid a dear internal price. So Abbas' position was the purest of posturing and stalling.

The moderate Arabs - Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia - use Mubarak's voice when speaking with Abbas. Humorously, the Palestinian homeland of Jordan speaks only when Obama tries to inject Turkey into the Middle East talks. How are Mubarak and Abbas doing? Like two guys standing 18 inches apart and pissing on each other. The problem for Abbas is that he has that most heinous of all male conditions: an enlarged prostrate coupled with Small Bladder Syndrome. Mubarak is completely opposed to the electoral manipulation discussed above. Their last meeting was nothing but a screaming match. Abbas wants Hamas gone, while Egypt simply wants it neutered.

Abbas is knee-padding Obama as if he's bucking for an MSM press pass when he's out of a job. He mimics the anti-Israeli statements and stays mum, ironically hiding behind Mubarak's skirt, when the Arab side of the mislabeled "Arab-Israeli Conflict" is criticized. Look at his actions since Obama took office and you see two things: Lots of words, and no affirmative actions. But give credit to Abbas - he knows how to play Obama ... words, words, words.

"Wait. You wrote "mislabeled," Clyde? Do tell." Alright. Thank you for asking. The "conflict" is an Arab-Persian one. Two bases for asserting that. First, the Palestinians have a homeland - it's Jordan. While the Palestinians have remained on Israeli land - Judea, Samara, East Jerusalem, and the buffer zones of the Strip and the Heights - they have served two purposes: A convenient way to deny Israel rest (the moderate position) and to make Israel an international outcast (both the moderate and militant position).

Second, the mere title of any conflict with includes a "-Israeli" portion states most of the argument on its face: "Persian-Israeli." Iran has been the only active source of funding opposition to Israel, while Egypt has been more passive (not policing the tunnel economy until it's own interests were threatened). See the common thread? It's Iran.

Where do these collective "Middle East Conflicts" leave Abbas? Utterly secondary, and utterly expendable. To the extent that he is consistent - preferably consistently ineffectual - he can stay. If or when he begins to effect change as an independent power broker, he will be gone within a fortnight. His plans for January 2010 may occur without him in office.

So that brings us to his dealings with Fatah. Abbas' biggest challenge is his Arafat Complex, characterized by a penchant for stealing millions of dollars in United States aid given, conveniently, in cash. Abbas was asked for an accounting at the recent Fatah conference, and Abbas himself shouted down the questioner. Fatah wants Hamas' head on a stick, and Abbas is the only way to do it.

So let's draw some of these threads together and see the tapestry that is formed.

There is no love between Fatah and Abbas. So how to appease Fatah? Take down Hamas, and give them the Strip.

Take down Hamas, however, and as you may please Egypt, et al., you antagonize Hezbullah and Iran.

Remove Hamas as a thorn to Israel, and Hezbullah will need to step up the pressure because Iran will tell them to.

If Hezbullah steps up, that draws Lebanon into the vocal moderate Arab camp, and further isolates Syria.

Continue to strip away the bit players, and what emerges is Egypt v. Iran, with Israel playing the waiting game. Waiting for what? For Obama to accept that Israel has the chance to take out Iran's nuke plants without the noise-level folks (Hamas, Hezbullah, and, marginally, Fatah) erupting.

Nowhere in these broader issues does Abbas play a direct role. He's allowed to sit at the dinner table with the adults provided he stays quiet. If he speaks up, he's gone. End of story. It may happen before the year is out.

Tags: Israel, Hamas, Iran, egypt, 

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